You should go read Lawfare's post about Trump and Russia.

Lawfare has very detailed, thorough, and sensible post summarizing the known details of the Trump Org's ties to Russia and laying out seven possible explanations:

In this post, we start with an overview of the facts known today, and we then put forth seven different theories of the Russia Connection case that might account for those facts. We present these in ascending order of potential menace, from the most innocent to the most alarming. In doing so, we attempt to narrow the field of discussion—or at least provide a disciplined framework for assessing the possibilities—and give readers guidance as to what to watch for as investigations on both the legislative and executive sides move forward.

For the record, my guess is that the truth lies somewhere in the range of Theories #2, 3, or 4.

I am also not yet ready to discount the possibility of Theory #1 ("It’s All a Giant Set of Coincidences and Disconnected Events"). It is a mundane explanation lacking any of the drama of the more extreme theories, but one should not underestimate the chaos and incompetence of the Trump campaign. One should also not forget that the fact that something is mundane does not mean it is not awful.

As for the explanations at the upper end of the outrage spectrum, yes—it is possible that there was an active and coordinated relationship between the Trump Org and the Russian government. However, one would do well to keep in mind Hanlon's Razor and its corollary, Trump's Razor here.

Trump is terrible. His administration and the actions of the creeps with whom he surrounds himself are actively working to wreck out government and our democracy in opted to enrich themselves (in Trump's case) or implement regressive and vile policy objectives (in the case of Congressional Republicans). We do not need elaborate theories of supervillainy to make this case, and engaging in such exercises distracts from the very real and pedestrian criminality of his enterprise.

I also find myself wondering whether any of these explanations, should it turn out to be true, would actually be enough to pry Trump out of office. In sane times, the answer would be "Obviously, yes," but these seem not to be sane times. Congressional Republicans have gone all in on Trump, and I am skeptical that they will be willing to give up their opportunity to keep pushing through their horrifying agenda. As for Trump himself… as I have said before, he is deep into his last con, and he is going to be extraordinarily hard to dislodge.

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